The latest ABP-CVoter prepoll survey shows that the road to victory for the BJP is difficult as the Assembly elections in five states near. Even though the survey projects victory for the saffron parties in Uttar Pradesh and a large loss of seat-share, the party will still struggle to win any seat in Punjab.
This poll had a total of 1,07,193 respondents across 690 seats. The margin of error was +/- 3 to +/- 5 percentage points.
C-Voter results in Uttar Pradesh show that the BJP, along with its allies, will be able to keep its place in the state despite losing around 108 of its seats.
BJP+ is projected to win around 40.7 percent of votes, SP+ 31.1 Percent, BSP 15.1 Percent, and INC 8.9 Percent. The range of seats that BJP+ will win is between 213-221 and 152-160 for SP+. Accordingly, the loss of the BJP seems to be a direct benefit for the Samajwadi Party.
The Congress, Punjab and Aam Aadmi Party could be involved in a neck to neck contest, with none of them touching the majority mark. However, BJP is expected to win zero seats in the state.
According to the CVoter results, Uttarakhand shows that BJP may win. The Congress came close but fell short of the majority mark.
BJP is expected to win 38 seats, INC 32 and AAP 0. The BJP is projected to win 41.4 percent votes, INC 36.3 percentage points, and AAP 11.8%.
Manipur is a place where the BJP hopes to win. The survey shows that the BJP will win between 25-29 seats, Congress 20-24, Naga People’s Front (4-8), and other 3-7 seats in the 60-member Assembly.
As the survey projects 21 seats for the party in the state, the BJP is likely to remain in power. This is the exact majority mark. The Congress may win 4, while the AAP could bag 5.
C-Voter results in Goa suggest that BJP may just manage to win, crossing exactly the majority mark.